A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Both authors two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
